Fri, Oct 11, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 011 | 219 | 02 | 0 | 243 |
| BUF | 013 | 111 | 14 | 04 | 2 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:29BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Kyle Okposo, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 2:02BUFMarco ScandellaAssists: Kyle Okposo, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 6:15FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Denis Malgin · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 19:49FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jack Eichel scored
- 2. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 3. BUF Sam Reinhart stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 5. BUF Casey Mittelstadt scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:00FLAKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:12FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Holding2 min
- P2 6:27BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:27FLAMike Hoffman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:38FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:26BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Hawryluk – Malgin5:05
xG 0.61–0.04 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov4:17
xG 0.36–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Vatrano5:36
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Vatrano6:52
xG 0.11–0.15 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad15:34
xG 0.97–0.52 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Yandle – Brown9:40
xG 0.70–0.46 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Matheson – Ekblad2:56
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons7:44
xG 0.67–0.22 (75%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1
- Sobotka – Johansson – Skinner10:52
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Vesey – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt5:04
xG 0.44–0.55 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel11:18
xG 0.28–0.81 (26%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Jokiharju13:31
xG 0.96–0.81 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- McCabe – Ristolainen17:03
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Miller – Dahlin11:38
xG 0.34–0.74 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).