Fri, Oct 11, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Anaheim Ducks 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 27 | 08 | 223 |
| CBJ | 010 | 19 | 08 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:59ANAJakob SilfverbergSHAssists: Rickard Rakell, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P2 14:56ANACam FowlerGWGAssists: Ondrej Kase, Jacob Larsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 16:16CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:51ANANick Ritchie: Holding2 min
- P2 4:25ANAMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:20ANARyan Getzlaf: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:24CBJCam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Grant
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Kase – Comtois9:21
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Shore – Ritchie – Terry7:51
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell11:26
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney7:49
xG 0.05–0.20 (21%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Holzer – Larsson12:12
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Fowler15:37
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm16:52
xG 0.84–1.08 (44%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Atkinson – Dubois12:11
xG 0.91–0.28 (77%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Nash – Milano – Lilja4:41
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Wennberg – Texier7:56
xG 0.15–0.02 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Bemstrom4:40
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski17:01
xG 0.97–0.74 (57%)attempts 24–19goals 1–0
- Murray – Nutivaara14:27
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Savard – Gavrikov13:57
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).