Fri, Oct 11, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 19 | 02 | 219 |
| CAR | 216 | 29 | 115 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:57CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Nino Niederreiter · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 8:36NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–1
- P1 14:42CARBrett PesceAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 1:53NYIJohnny BoychukPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 15:09CARErik HaulaGWGAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
- P2 19:01CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Jaccob Slavin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 19:10CARAndrei SvechnikovENAssists: Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.65 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:28CARDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:59NYIMichael Dal Colle: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:49NYIDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:56CARAndrei Svechnikov: Delaying game bench2 min · PPG
- P2 7:10CARRyan Dzingel: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:20NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Holding2 min
- P2 8:50CARAndrei Svechnikov: Holding2 min
- P3 12:57CARJulien Gauthier: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Komarov – Clutterbuck – Martin9:41
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal13:50
xG 0.55–0.75 (42%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- Brassard – Dal Colle – Beauvillier6:20
xG 0.02–0.60 (3%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Bailey – Nelson – Kuhnhackl4:54
xG 0.00–0.64 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Boychuk – Dobson11:28
xG 0.15–0.38 (28%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews13:35
xG 0.19–0.81 (19%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:15
xG 0.13–1.51 (8%)attempts 5–23goals 0–3
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Teravainen – Aho11:59
xG 1.13–0.23 (83%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Haula – Dzingel – Necas10:55
xG 0.79–0.13 (86%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Staal – McGinn – Svechnikov9:02
xG 0.53–0.17 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Foegele – Wallmark – Gauthier5:49
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin15:17
xG 0.97–0.12 (89%)attempts 21–6goals 2–0
- Gardiner – Fleury14:42
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Pesce14:09
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).