Sat, Oct 12, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Edmonton Oilers 4, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 15 | 314 | 427 |
| NYR | 17 | 05 | 09 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:28NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Ryan Strome · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 6:45EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 9:44EDMConnor McDavidPPGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 13:12EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Ethan Bear · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 19:45EDMLeon DraisaitlENAssists: Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:08EDMJames Neal: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:29EDMKris Russell: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:34EDMZack Kassian: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:10NYRBrett Howden: Interference2 min
- P3 6:20EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:33NYRBrendan Lemieux: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Draisaitl – McDavid15:34
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Granlund – Nygard8:04
xG 0.49–0.09 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira8:11
xG 0.40–0.07 (84%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Neal – Jurco – Nugent-Hopkins9:29
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear15:37
xG 0.97–0.24 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Klefbom – Persson13:25
xG 0.93–0.33 (74%)attempts 26–7goals 1–1
- Russell – Benning14:13
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Lemieux – Howden6:31
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kreider – Howden – Kakko2:57
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kreider – Strome – Kakko6:28
xG 0.02–0.60 (3%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Panarin13:41
xG 0.24–1.01 (19%)attempts 5–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Skjei – Fox11:45
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Staal – DeAngelo11:01
xG 0.19–0.74 (21%)attempts 3–15goals 0–2
- Trouba – Hajek11:40
xG 0.02–0.82 (2%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).