Sat, Oct 12, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Nashville Predators 4, Los Angeles Kings 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 14 | 08 | 320 | 432 |
| LAK | 213 | 216 | 39 | 738 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Ryan Ellis, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 8:47LAKMichael AmadioAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Sean Walker · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 11:14LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown, Alec Martinez · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 6:53LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Joakim Ryan · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 18:12LAKIlya KovalchukAssists: Michael Amadio · Snap, 0.26 xG1–4
- P3 1:17NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Ryan Johansen, Calle Jarnkrok · Snap, 0.33 xG2–4
- P3 10:56NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–4
- P3 11:30NSHColton SissonsAssists: Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 19:01LAKAlex IafalloGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.53 xG4–5
- P3 19:24LAKDustin BrownENAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.57 xG4–6
- P3 19:31LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.00 xG4–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:31NSHDan Hamhuis: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:37LAKIlya Kovalchuk: Holding2 min
- P2 10:30LAKSean Walker: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:09NSHDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
- P2 15:29LAKAlec Martinez: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:05LAKAustin Wagner: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg13:05
xG 0.95–0.37 (72%)attempts 21–5goals 1–1
- Bonino – Smith – Sissons4:11
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Turris – Watson – Carr2:00
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Carr4:56
xG 0.00–0.26 (1%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hamhuis – Ekholm2:35
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber9:48
xG 0.06–0.25 (19%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis15:34
xG 0.65–1.14 (36%)attempts 16–17goals 1–3
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo14:42
xG 1.29–0.57 (69%)attempts 19–10goals 2–1
- Kovalchuk – Lewis – Amadio9:30
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
- Clifford – Kempe – Wagner8:30
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Lizotte9:41
xG 0.32–0.46 (40%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Walker15:51
xG 1.55–0.60 (72%)attempts 29–10goals 3–2
- Ryan – Roy12:55
xG 0.66–0.20 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Doughty – Hutton19:29
xG 0.86–0.85 (50%)attempts 14–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).