Sat, Oct 12, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
St. Louis Blues 3, Montréal Canadiens 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 212 | 010 | 329 |
| MTL | 28 | 114 | 316 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:59MTLTomas TatarAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Phillip Danault · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 17:57STLBrayden SchennAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 18:47MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Ben Chiarot, Christian Folin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 1:05STLSammy BlaisAssists: Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 12:50STLVince DunnPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 15:35MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 7:30MTLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Jeff Petry, Jordan Weal · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 11:56MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Max Domi, Victor Mete · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 17:32MTLMax DomiENAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:03MTLBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:18STLVince Dunn: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:41STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:50STLSammy Blais: Interference2 min
- P2 7:08STLJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
- P2 12:00MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:30STLColton Parayko: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Bozak – Sanford – Fabbri4:57
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:51
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Blais12:26
xG 0.28–0.61 (31%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
- Steen – Sundqvist – Barbashev5:25
xG 0.01–0.92 (2%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Dunn12:31
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo12:46
xG 0.37–0.57 (39%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Bouwmeester – Parayko16:39
xG 0.25–1.20 (17%)attempts 8–13goals 1–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestWeal – Lehkonen – Domi8:40
xG 0.75–0.09 (89%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault11:16
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Thompson – Byron – Suzuki9:14
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Armia – Drouin – Kotkaniemi7:40
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak12:48
xG 0.69–0.10 (88%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Folin14:23
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Weber – Mete13:41
xG 0.70–0.59 (54%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).