Sat, Oct 12, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 112 | 113 | 110 | 335 |
| CAR | 110 | 111 | 011 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17CBJMarkus NutivaaraAssists: Ryan Murray, Alexander Wennberg · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 10:44CARErik HaulaAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:51CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Warren Foegele · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 3:08CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Ryan Murray, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 1:15CBJPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:19CBJAlexandre Texier: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:52CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:34CARJordan Staal: Holding2 min
- P1 17:37CBJSeth Jones: Interference2 min
- P2 10:10CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:31CARHaydn Fleury: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Atkinson – Dubois10:18
xG 1.11–0.64 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Nash – Texier – Bemstrom2:50
xG 0.13–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg12:12
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Jenner – Texier – Bemstrom3:08
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara13:44
xG 1.43–0.21 (87%)attempts 17–9goals 3–0
- Savard – Gavrikov13:01
xG 0.19–0.41 (32%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski14:28
xG 0.47–0.95 (33%)attempts 16–19goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Teravainen – Aho11:41
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Foegele – Wallmark – Gauthier7:40
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Haula – Dzingel – Necas9:08
xG 0.14–0.21 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Staal – McGinn – Svechnikov11:36
xG 0.86–1.09 (44%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Pesce5:59
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin14:18
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Pesce10:47
xG 0.80–0.88 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).