Sat, Oct 12, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Washington Capitals 4, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 17 | 27 | 425 |
| DAL | 09 | 08 | 18 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Jakub Vrana, Brendan Leipsic · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 7:13WSHJohn CarlsonGWGAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 3:35WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 7:00DALRadek FaksaAssists: Mattias Janmark, Miro Heiskanen · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 19:03WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Tom Wilson · Backhand, 0.55 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:52DALJoel Hanley: High sticking2 min
- P1 0:52DALJoel Hanley: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:17DALNick Caamano: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P1 8:03WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:32WSHDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:17WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:46WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min
- P2 10:04WSHRadko Gudas: Delaying game2 min
- P2 17:23WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:06DALJoel Hanley: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 12:06DALJoel L'Esperance: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gardner won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Leipsic – Hathaway6:24
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson7:44
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik9:25
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana7:02
xG 0.09–0.75 (11%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Siegenthaler12:31
xG 0.91–0.34 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Gudas – Siegenthaler2:16
xG 0.01–0.03 (30%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jensen – Lewington7:07
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Hintz4:19
xG 0.50–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Janmark – Hintz4:19
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Caamano – Gardner5:52
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin5:57
xG 0.01–0.08 (10%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Heiskanen7:15
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Sekera – Lindell3:19
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen5:14
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).