Sat, Oct 12, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Vancouver Canucks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 110 | 114 | 01 | 1 | 232 |
| VAN | 16 | 17 | 06 | 05 | 2 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, Chris Tanev · Snap, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 3:14PHICarsen TwarynskiAssists: Justin Braun, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 4:27VANTanner PearsonAssists: Chris Tanev, Josh Leivo · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 14:58PHIOskar LindblomPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. VAN Brock Boeser stopped
- 2. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 3. VAN Elias Pettersson scored
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 5. VAN Tanner Pearson scored
- 6. PHI Kevin Hayes stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:05VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:42PHICarsen Twarynski: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:50VANJake Virtanen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:55VANJordie Benn: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 3:47PHISean Couturier: Throwing equipment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – van Riemsdyk – Hayes7:29
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Twarynski6:22
xG 0.15–0.03 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Laughton – Twarynski2:34
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Hayes6:19
xG 0.31–0.39 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Sanheim12:55
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg9:47
xG 0.60–0.42 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov2:07
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson14:18
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Beagle – Schaller – Virtanen7:22
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Sutter – Ferland – Gaudette7:52
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Leivo – Pearson – Horvat12:26
xG 0.70–0.85 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hughes11:30
xG 0.72–0.19 (79%)attempts 7–11goals 2–1
- Myers – Hughes2:12
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Edler – Stecher3:10
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).