Sat, Oct 12, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Calgary Flames 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 217 | 09 | 235 |
| VGK | 19 | 310 | 211 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24VGKTomas NosekAssists: William Carrier, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 4:02CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 4:35CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 6:44VGKMark StoneAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 9:54VGKWilliam CarrierGWGAssists: William Karlsson, Jon Merrill · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 17:26VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Max Pacioretty, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 4:47VGKRyan ReavesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 17:12VGKCody GlassAssists: Valentin Zykov, Nicolas Hague · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:21CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Interference2 min
- P1 3:52VGKDeryk Engelland: Holding2 min
- P2 7:35CGYElias Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P2 14:56VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
- P2 18:19VGKMark Stone: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:59VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:06CGYMichael Frolik: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Rieder – Jankowski3:22
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Jankowski – Bennett5:59
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk5:34
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Lucic – Bennett – Ryan2:19
xG 0.03–0.11 (22%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Andersson14:33
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Stone – Brodie12:30
xG 0.17–0.79 (18%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- Hamonic – Hanifin16:20
xG 0.40–1.21 (25%)attempts 17–17goals 1–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:35
xG 0.66–0.15 (81%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek6:14
xG 0.83–0.42 (67%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Eakin – Zykov – Glass7:53
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone12:02
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Hague10:33
xG 0.83–0.44 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 3–1
- Holden – Merrill14:43
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:41
xG 0.85–0.54 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).