Sun, Oct 13, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, Winnipeg Jets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 310 | 39 | 728 |
| WPG | 19 | 110 | 010 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:47WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Jack Roslovic, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 4:09PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Teddy Blueger, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 7:50PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Marcus Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 8:31PITSam LaffertyGWGAssists: Joseph Blandisi, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 10:00WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Patrik Laine, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 16:28PITDominik SimonAssists: Sidney Crosby, Marcus Pettersson · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 9:13PITSam LaffertyAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
- P3 11:40PITJake GuentzelAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.10 xG6–2
- P3 14:46PITZachary Aston-ReeseSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG7–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:57PITDominik Kahun: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:05WPGMason Appleton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:23PITErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:09PITDominik Simon: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:24WPGKyle Connor: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:51PITJohn Marino: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:39PITAdam Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:25PITDominik Kahun: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese9:00
xG 0.62–0.13 (82%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Blandisi – Lafferty – Johnson4:57
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Simon13:21
xG 0.58–0.57 (50%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Kahun9:03
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Pettersson13:20
xG 0.85–0.27 (76%)attempts 14–12goals 3–0
- Gudbranson – Marino11:02
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 2–17goals 0–1
- Letang – Dumoulin16:08
xG 0.49–0.80 (38%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Roslovic2:38
xG 0.17–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine9:15
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers3:12
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
- Letestu – Bourque – Appleton3:00
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlstrom – Pionk13:36
xG 0.80–0.48 (63%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Bitetto14:31
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Poolman – Morrissey16:21
xG 0.30–0.77 (28%)attempts 7–20goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).