Sun, Oct 13, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 27 | 223 | 16 | 536 |
| LAK | 116 | 08 | 114 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:42VGKReilly SmithAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 6:59VGKMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 7:49LAKAustin WagnerAssists: Sean Walker, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 14:51VGKPaul StastnyPPGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Shea Theodore · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 17:00VGKPaul StastnyPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 4:24LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 4:41VGKMark StoneAssists: Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:36VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:09LAKDustin Brown: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 10:59VGKNicolas Hague: Interference2 min
- P2 13:29LAKJeff Carter: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:20LAKJoakim Ryan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:03VGKWilliam Carrier: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Lizotte
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Nosek9:15
xG 0.75–0.21 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:40
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone11:49
xG 0.48–0.71 (41%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Eakin – Zykov – Glass10:03
xG 0.30–1.18 (20%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore15:40
xG 1.29–0.95 (58%)attempts 24–17goals 0–1
- Holden – Merrill17:59
xG 0.60–0.90 (40%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Engelland – Hague11:39
xG 0.19–0.61 (24%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Lizotte11:41
xG 1.13–0.47 (71%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Lewis – Amadio10:55
xG 0.54–0.25 (69%)attempts 17–7goals 0–2
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo11:54
xG 0.62–0.83 (43%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Clifford – Kempe – Wagner8:26
xG 0.00–0.48 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRyan – Roy14:42
xG 1.38–0.39 (78%)attempts 19–17goals 2–0
- Martinez – Walker15:52
xG 0.56–0.40 (59%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Doughty – Hutton15:49
xG 0.22–1.09 (17%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).