Mon, Oct 14, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Minnesota Wild 2, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 012 | 212 | 235 |
| OTT | 07 | 012 | 07 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 9:23MINVictor RaskGWGAssists: Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 17:41MINZach PariseENAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:14OTTVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:17OTTErik Brannstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 2:22MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min
- P2 9:17OTTBobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:17OTTChris Tierney: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:17MINLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:28MINKevin Fiala: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:33OTTThomas Chabot: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:09OTTTyler Ennis: Interference2 min
- P2 19:17MINLuke Kunin: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:18OTTErik Brannstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:15MINMarcus Foligno: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:28MINLuke Kunin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Zucker8:00
xG 0.75–0.17 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Hartman – Fiala6:32
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Rask – Donato – Greenway5:20
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin9:17
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba11:32
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon11:08
xG 0.58–0.14 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Hunt – Soucy8:33
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Boedker – Szwarz – Sabourin3:18
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pageau – Namestnikov – Brown7:07
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – White – Tkachuk2:43
xG 0.07–0.20 (26%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Tierney – Duclair4:19
xG 0.07–0.33 (17%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev14:40
xG 0.53–0.41 (57%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Borowiecki – DeMelo9:43
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Brannstrom9:38
xG 0.25–0.72 (26%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).