Mon, Oct 14, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 6, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 29 | 313 | 634 |
| NJD | 28 | 29 | 04 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 2:28NJDTaylor HallAssists: Pavel Zacha, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 19:13NJDJesper BrattAssists: Pavel Zacha, Nikita Gusev · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 0:32NJDWill ButcherAssists: Travis Zajac, Miles Wood · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 1:08NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Taylor Hall, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 9:50FLABrett ConnollyAssists: Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P2 19:52FLABrett ConnollyAssists: Mike Hoffman, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 0:30FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 7:30FLANoel AcciariGWGAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 15:32FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Mike Matheson · Backhand, 0.36 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 2:26FLADryden Hunt: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:23FLADenis Malgin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:42NJDP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:43NJDSami Vatanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:19FLADryden Hunt: Holding2 min
- P3 8:57NJDP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P3 12:38NJDJesper Boqvist: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov10:47
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
- Vatrano – Malgin – Borgstrom9:50
xG 0.51–0.33 (60%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Hunt – Acciari8:34
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Connolly – Trocheck9:53
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad17:11
xG 1.15–0.19 (86%)attempts 20–9goals 3–2
- Yandle – Brown10:28
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Stralman – Matheson13:43
xG 0.51–0.88 (37%)attempts 13–7goals 0–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Boqvist – Hughes5:50
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Gusev – Zacha – Bratt7:39
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Hall – Bratt – Hughes2:15
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Zacha3:03
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Butcher14:07
xG 0.54–0.13 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Tennyson – Carrick12:43
xG 0.08–0.55 (12%)attempts 4–19goals 0–2
- Subban – Severson11:33
xG 0.41–1.30 (24%)attempts 4–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).