Mon, Oct 14, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Colorado Avalanche 6, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 410 | 07 | 28 | 625 |
| WSH | 04 | 216 | 112 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:42COLErik JohnsonAssists: Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 6:00COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 7:54COLNazem KadriAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P1 9:25COLMikko RantanenPPGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–0
- P2 6:56WSHLars EllerAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
- P2 15:28WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 4:24COLMatt NietoAssists: Tyson Jost · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 17:39WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Slap, 0.04 xG5–3
- P3 19:20COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.62 xG6–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:49WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:44WSHTyler Lewington: Instigator2 min
- P1 9:44COLValeri Nichushkin: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:44WSHTyler Lewington: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:44WSHTyler Lewington: Misconduct10 min
- P1 16:28WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:50COLNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:45WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:06WSHTom Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:06COLSamuel Girard: Embellishment2 min
- P3 15:39COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:22
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Wilson – Nieto – Jost8:34
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky8:29
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 2–1
- Calvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare7:35
xG 0.16–0.34 (31%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Makar7:31
xG 0.33–0.17 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Cole – Graves7:35
xG 0.17–0.06 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Girard2:41
xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson12:49
xG 0.76–0.33 (70%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Eller – Hathaway3:01
xG 0.35–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik4:18
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov4:27
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 11–1goals 0–1
- Orlov – Gudas13:06
xG 0.70–0.34 (67%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Jensen – Lewington6:03
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).