Mon, Oct 14, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 1, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 012 | 06 | 110 | 128 |
| CHI | 010 | 117 | 28 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:11CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 6:20CHIAlex NylanderGWGAssists: Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 17:49EDMJames NealPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 19:27CHIBrandon SaadENAssists: David Kampf, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:11CHIDominik Kubalik: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:52CHIAndrew Shaw: Holding2 min
- P2 5:12EDMJujhar Khaira: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:05EDMEthan Bear: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:32EDMJujhar Khaira: Holding2 min
- P3 14:23EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:23CHICalvin de Haan: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:58CHIDominik Kubalik: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Granlund – Nygard5:53
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid15:25
xG 1.04–0.98 (52%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira7:46
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Neal – Jurco – Nugent-Hopkins8:11
xG 0.13–0.29 (32%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear16:46
xG 1.56–0.98 (61%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
- Russell – Benning9:51
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Klefbom – Persson11:40
xG 0.19–0.70 (21%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Kubalik – Kampf9:41
xG 0.62–0.18 (78%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Toews – DeBrincat – Caggiula8:34
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kane – Shaw – Strome10:21
xG 0.54–0.59 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Smith – Carpenter – Nylander7:05
xG 0.14–0.60 (19%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Gustafsson10:25
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Keith – Murphy14:25
xG 0.81–0.60 (57%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- de Haan – Murphy3:04
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).