Tue, Oct 15, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 06 | 16 | 122 |
| CGY | 113 | 113 | 112 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35CGYMichael FrolikUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 14:15CGYAndrew MangiapaneGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 4:58PHIMatt NiskanenAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 19:49CGYElias LindholmENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:54CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:22CGYSam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P1 10:52PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:25CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Holding2 min
- P1 15:37PHIIvan Provorov: Holding2 min
- P2 5:06PHITyler Pitlick: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:51CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hayes – Lindblom5:20
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Hayes6:21
xG 0.20–0.17 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny5:37
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Voracek – Laughton – Twarynski2:58
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Gostisbehere4:35
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov7:32
xG 0.15–0.12 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Hagg7:01
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:54
xG 0.48–0.04 (91%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Bennett – Czarnik5:09
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Lucic – Mangiapane – Ryan8:45
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:03
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin14:31
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 24–12goals 0–1
- Andersson – Kylington14:37
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:42
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).