Wed, Oct 16, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 211 | 08 | 113 | 332 |
| WSH | 112 | 312 | 08 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37TORKasperi KapanenSHAssists: Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 10:58TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 18:59WSHJakub VranaAssists: John Carlson, Garnet Hathaway · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 5:07WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: John Carlson, Carl Hagelin · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 5:18WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 6:25WSHJohn CarlsonPPGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 17:27TORJohn TavaresAssists: Jake Muzzin, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:52TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:13TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:36TORNicholas Shore: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:45TORCody Ceci: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:10TORAuston Matthews: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:04WSHCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Marner – Mikheyev2:09
xG 0.44–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Kapanen – Moore2:09
xG 0.26–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews15:11
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Kapanen – Mikheyev3:45
xG 0.38–0.54 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Barrie14:09
xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- Barrie – Rielly2:04
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Rielly – Ceci16:03
xG 0.84–0.86 (50%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:24
xG 0.57–0.09 (87%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Eller – Hathaway – Vrana9:19
xG 0.71–0.41 (63%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:35
xG 0.66–0.71 (48%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Panik – Leipsic – Stephenson4:33
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Siegenthaler10:29
xG 0.66–0.26 (72%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Orlov – Gudas9:23
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Carlson – Gudas3:26
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).