Wed, Oct 16, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Dallas Stars 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 116 | 05 | 111 | 232 |
| CBJ | 211 | 010 | 114 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:42CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 15:01CBJAlexander WennbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 18:08DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Alexander Radulov, Taylor Fedun · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 9:07CBJSonny MilanoGWGAssists: Jakob Lilja, Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 19:55DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:30CBJSonny Milano: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:32CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:21DALTaylor Fedun: Holding2 min
- P2 17:18DALAndrej Sekera: Holding2 min
- P3 15:46DALRoope Hintz: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Atkinson won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Faksa – Dickinson9:50
xG 0.50–0.10 (83%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin12:46
xG 0.79–0.45 (64%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Gurianov – Gardner5:01
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Perry – Janmark – Hintz9:28
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Klingberg3:53
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell10:45
xG 0.91–0.67 (58%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Sekera – Heiskanen9:32
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Nash – Milano – Lilja5:18
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Jenner – Texier – Bemstrom9:04
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg10:21
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Atkinson – Dubois10:52
xG 0.26–0.70 (27%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Gavrikov12:15
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Murray – Nutivaara13:36
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski13:50
xG 0.29–0.83 (26%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).