Wed, Oct 16, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 116 | 011 | 225 | 352 |
| EDM | 28 | 310 | 14 | 622 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Slap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 7:36PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 14:52EDMEthan BearAssists: James Neal, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 12:34EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Kris Russell, Oscar Klefbom · Snap, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 14:32EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 16:26EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 3:40EDMBrandon ManningAssists: Connor McDavid, Zack Kassian · Slap, 0.04 xG1–6
- P3 15:20PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Jakub Voracek, Justin Braun · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–6
- P3 17:42PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.11 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:31EDMEthan Bear: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:09EDMMarkus Granlund: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:00PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:06PHICarsen Twarynski: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:45EDMPatrick Russell: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:23EDMMarkus Granlund: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:51EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:36EDMJujhar Khaira: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Laughton – Raffl5:30
xG 0.89–0.01 (99%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny13:47
xG 1.04–0.34 (76%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Lindblom3:52
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Voracek – Hayes – Lindblom7:24
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Sanheim12:41
xG 1.95–0.46 (81%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Braun – Provorov14:14
xG 0.92–0.38 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Hagg11:28
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins10:45
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Archibald – Jurco – Granlund7:19
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Khaira – Russell10:54
xG 0.33–0.78 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid14:24
xG 0.65–1.94 (25%)attempts 8–22goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Benning10:19
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Russell – Klefbom15:05
xG 0.65–1.34 (33%)attempts 12–21goals 2–0
- Nurse – Bear19:01
xG 0.66–1.73 (28%)attempts 11–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).