Wed, Oct 16, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Buffalo Sabres 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 219 | 08 | 06 | 233 |
| ANA | 111 | 313 | 17 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:35BUFJack EichelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P1 16:36BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 18:40ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Josh Manson, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 0:57ANARickard RakellAssists: Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 9:14ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: Sam Steel, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 19:47ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Maxime Comtois, Jakob Silfverberg · Snap, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 16:47ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–5
Penalties (21)
- P1 5:07BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:53BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:22ANAAdam Henrique: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:45BUFHenri Jokiharju: Interference2 min
- P2 1:45ANAMaxime Comtois: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:44ANAJacob Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:16BUFJohan Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:27ANACarter Rowney: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:27BUFMarco Scandella: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:27ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:15BUFRasmus Dahlin: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 11:36ANAOndrej Kase: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:57BUFLinus Ullmark: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:57ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:57ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00ANAKorbinian Holzer: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 0:00ANAAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00BUFJohan Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:33ANAJacob Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:47BUFJeff Skinner: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:47ANAMaxime Comtois: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Johansson – Skinner6:54
xG 0.47–0.06 (88%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel9:30
xG 0.93–0.62 (60%)attempts 10–15goals 1–2
- Vesey – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt5:03
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons4:09
xG 0.07–0.32 (17%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Jokiharju8:16
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Scandella – Miller4:25
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Dahlin5:52
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Steel – Jones8:12
xG 0.66–0.14 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Grant – Rowney – Ritchie5:28
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell8:02
xG 0.43–0.63 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Kase – Comtois8:17
xG 0.21–0.62 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Holzer – Larsson11:28
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Fowler11:06
xG 0.52–0.49 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm10:44
xG 0.70–1.22 (36%)attempts 15–15goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).