Wed, Oct 16, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Carolina Hurricanes 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 116 | 012 | 110 | 238 |
| SJS | 37 | 111 | 14 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:36SJSEvander KaneAssists: Tomas Hertl, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:46CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 17:19SJSEvander KanePPAssists: Brent Burns, Kevin Labanc · Slap, 0.26 xG1–2
- P1 19:43SJSEvander KanePPGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Tomas Hertl · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 14:37SJSBarclay GoodrowUnassisted · Snap, 0.26 xG1–4
- P3 15:41CARErik HaulaAssists: Brock McGinn, Ryan Dzingel · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 19:07SJSTomas HertlENAssists: Evander Kane, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:26CARNino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:37CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:08CARJaccob Slavin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:08SJSJoe Thornton: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:17SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:32SJSBarclay Goodrow: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:28CARNino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:12SJSKevin Labanc: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Dzingel – McGinn3:30
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Staal – McGinn – Svechnikov7:46
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Gibbons – Foegele – Wallmark9:43
xG 0.40–0.28 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Staal – Niederreiter – Teravainen3:42
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin14:04
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Fleury4:58
xG 0.44–0.26 (62%)attempts 8–1goals 1–1
- Edmundson – Pesce7:33
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Hertl – Labanc9:42
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Gambrell – Radil6:14
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Goodrow9:00
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 4–14goals 1–1
- Marleau – Couture – Meier11:30
xG 0.10–0.48 (17%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon14:58
xG 0.90–0.61 (60%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Heed – Ferraro9:25
xG 0.45–0.18 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Burns – Dillon2:28
xG 0.03–0.04 (39%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).