Thu, Oct 17, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Minnesota Wild 0, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 06 | 05 | 017 |
| MTL | 315 | 07 | 111 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:37MTLVictor MeteGWGAssists: Nick Cousins · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 17:32MTLJoel ArmiaPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 19:23MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Jeff Petry, Max Domi · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 12:40MTLBrendan GallagherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:17MINZach Parise: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:43MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
- P1 16:02MINNick Seeler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 17:18MINLuke Kunin: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:22MINJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:26MTLShea Weber: Holding2 min
- P2 4:48MINGerry Mayhew: Holding2 min
- P2 9:30MTLTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
- P3 10:17MTLCale Fleury: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:19MTLBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:49MTLNate Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:49MINLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:14MINNick Seeler: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:14MTLPaul Byron: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Donato – Greenway – Mayhew2:30
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Zucker3:10
xG 0.01–0.08 (15%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin4:27
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Zucker6:39
xG 0.07–0.36 (16%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seeler – Brodin3:36
xG 0.03–0.02 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba11:42
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Seeler – Hunt9:50
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault8:15
xG 0.75–0.15 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Domi6:33
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Thompson – Cousins – Suzuki8:12
xG 0.21–0.10 (69%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Armia – Drouin – Kotkaniemi9:25
xG 0.21–0.10 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak8:13
xG 0.82–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Fleury11:10
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete10:44
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).