Thu, Oct 17, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 110 | 015 | 16 | 231 |
| NJD | 114 | 29 | 215 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:02NYRTony DeAngeloAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 12:58NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Travis Zajac, Matt Tennyson · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 2:18NJDKyle PalmieriPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 12:25NJDMiles WoodGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Matt Tennyson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 2:22NYRJesper FastAssists: Ryan Strome, Brendan Smith · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 12:21NJDNikita GusevUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 19:12NJDP.K. SubbanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:55NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min
- P1 2:55NYRMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:55NJDMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:26NJDKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:12NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:48NJDTaylor Hall: Interference2 min
- P2 2:13NYRBrady Skjei: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:07NYRArtemi Panarin: Holding2 min
- P2 6:49NJDTaylor Hall: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:49NJDTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:49NYRBrady Skjei: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:31NJDJesper Bratt: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:57NYRTony DeAngelo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:08NJDTaylor Hall: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 10:14NYRJesper Fast: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:20NJDWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:52NYRTony DeAngelo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Haley – McKegg – Andersson5:03
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Kreider – Howden – Kakko5:57
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Panarin9:28
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Fox5:51
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Trouba – Hajek5:33
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Staal – DeAngelo6:38
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Simmonds – Coleman7:50
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Hughes5:01
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gusev – Zacha – Bratt4:33
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Hayden – Wood – Rooney9:58
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Severson11:37
xG 0.75–0.30 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Tennyson – Mueller9:31
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 2–1
- Vatanen – Butcher9:45
xG 0.14–0.78 (15%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).