Thu, Oct 17, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 212 | 19 | 326 |
| WPG | 116 | 08 | 09 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:12WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Ville Heinola · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 7:41NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 19:43NYIMathew BarzalGWGAssists: Anders Lee, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 19:33NYIJosh BaileyENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.63 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 11:28NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:41NYIMichael Dal Colle: Holding2 min
- P2 7:25WPGDmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Dal Colle – Beauvillier7:48
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brassard – Bailey – Wahlstrom10:40
xG 0.58–0.43 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Komarov – Nelson – Beauvillier4:41
xG 0.01–0.09 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Komarov – Clutterbuck – Johnston2:33
xG 0.01–0.14 (6%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy13:07
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock17:53
xG 0.82–0.58 (59%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Toews2:02
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Ehlers – Connor14:14
xG 0.91–0.35 (72%)attempts 22–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine14:13
xG 0.83–0.44 (66%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Bourque – Appleton – Gustafsson5:20
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Roslovic12:02
xG 0.48–0.56 (46%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPionk – Heinola14:14
xG 0.75–0.29 (72%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Poolman – Heinola3:14
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Dahlstrom16:20
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).