Thu, Oct 17, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Ottawa Senators 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 011 | 110 | 05 | 2 | 239 |
| VGK | 216 | 016 | 020 | 02 | 3 | 354 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 5:12OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Connor Brown, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 13:32VGKNick HoldenPPAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 4:25OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Tyler Ennis, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 2. VGK Brandon Pirri scored
- 3. OTT Vladislav Namestnikov scored
- 4. VGK Mark Stone stopped
- 5. OTT Anthony Duclair stopped
- 6. VGK Reilly Smith stopped
- 7. OTT Tyler Ennis scored
- 8. VGK Shea Theodore scored
- 9. OTT Brady Tkachuk stopped
- 10. VGK Jonathan Marchessault scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:27OTTScott Sabourin: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:27VGKRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:25VGKWilliam Carrier: Holding2 min
- P1 11:33OTTAnthony Duclair: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:58OTTThomas Chabot: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:11VGKMarc-Andre Fleury: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:47VGKTomas Nosek: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 0:00VGKBrayden McNabb: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:52OTTAnthony Duclair: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSzwarz – Sabourin – Paul2:37
xG 0.39–0.07 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Ennis – Pageau6:06
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – White – Tkachuk3:08
xG 0.45–0.47 (49%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Pageau – Sabourin – Paul3:14
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Brannstrom10:06
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – DeMelo10:38
xG 0.61–0.69 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Chabot – Zaitsev17:47
xG 0.28–1.31 (18%)attempts 7–26goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:45
xG 1.21–0.77 (61%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek6:45
xG 0.19–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone9:36
xG 0.24–0.14 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Pirri – Eakin – Glass8:08
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore14:27
xG 1.38–0.70 (66%)attempts 27–11goals 0–1
- Holden – Merrill14:58
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Engelland – Hague11:15
xG 0.60–0.78 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).