Thu, Oct 17, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Buffalo Sabres 3, Los Angeles Kings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 27 | 110 | 07 | 324 |
| LAK | 011 | 017 | 019 | 047 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36BUFCasey MittelstadtGWGAssists: Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 5:20BUFConor ShearyAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 2:32BUFCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Colin Miller · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:12LAKIlya Kovalchuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:45LAKIlya Kovalchuk: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:40BUFMarcus Johansson: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:11BUFJake McCabe: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:39BUFJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:03LAKIlya Kovalchuk: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Kempe
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons12:54
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel12:39
xG 0.40–0.68 (37%)attempts 8–28goals 0–0
- Vesey – Sheary – Mittelstadt8:45
xG 0.36–0.76 (32%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Sobotka – Johansson – Skinner12:06
xG 0.31–0.85 (26%)attempts 8–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Jokiharju13:52
xG 0.66–0.69 (49%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Miller – Dahlin14:05
xG 0.62–0.94 (40%)attempts 18–31goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen16:21
xG 0.12–0.86 (12%)attempts 3–23goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Lizotte10:49
xG 0.79–0.18 (82%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo13:28
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Kempe2:29
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Lewis – Kempe7:08
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Walker16:00
xG 1.46–0.70 (67%)attempts 33–10goals 0–1
- Doughty – Hutton16:07
xG 0.99–0.41 (71%)attempts 25–13goals 0–0
- Ryan – Roy13:46
xG 0.85–0.37 (70%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).