Fri, Oct 18, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Colorado Avalanche 5, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 113 | 318 | 07 | 13 | 541 |
| FLA | 317 | 111 | 012 | 04 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:32FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:26FLAFrank VatranoSHAssists: Denis Malgin, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.30 xG0–2
- P1 10:57COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Ian Cole, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 14:57FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Joshua Brown · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 11:23COLMatt NietoAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 11:55COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P2 14:05FLABrett ConnollyAssists: Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P2 14:21COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- OT 3:03COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:24FLAJoshua Brown: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 2:40FLAColton Sceviour: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:37COLNazem Kadri: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:34COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:28COLMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:18COLJoonas Donskoi: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky10:55
xG 0.80–0.62 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Wilson – Compher – Jost6:36
xG 0.22–0.07 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Calvert – Nieto – Bellemare8:06
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 1–2
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:51
xG 0.57–0.72 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Graves6:35
xG 0.52–0.07 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Cole – Zadorov7:29
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 13–5goals 3–0
- Graves – Makar2:52
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:39
xG 0.73–0.80 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
- Hoffman – Connolly – Trocheck8:49
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Sceviour – Hunt – Acciari10:24
xG 0.40–0.76 (35%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Matheson13:09
xG 0.75–0.65 (53%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Weegar – Ekblad13:22
xG 0.70–0.82 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
- Yandle – Brown8:18
xG 0.07–0.50 (12%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).