Sat, Oct 19, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Montréal Canadiens 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 313 | 14 | 525 |
| STL | 111 | 015 | 18 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57MTLJordan WealPPAssists: Max Domi, Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 7:08STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Tarasenko · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 0:06MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 3:39MTLJonathan DrouinPPGWGAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Shea Weber · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 11:33MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Nate Thompson, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 19:22STLDavid PerronAssists: Justin Faulk, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 19:37MTLShea WeberENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.52 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:22STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:45MTLTomas Tatar: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:33MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:12STLAlex Pietrangelo: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:25STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:43MTLVictor Mete: Holding2 min
- P3 1:03STLBrayden Schenn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:28STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestWeal – Lehkonen – Domi6:25
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – Byron – Lehkonen2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Byron – Drouin – Kotkaniemi5:39
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault8:23
xG 0.03–0.21 (11%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Petry – Kulak11:56
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Folin14:06
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Weber – Mete10:51
xG 0.18–0.48 (27%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:26
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Fabbri2:46
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Barbashev – Thomas6:40
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Steen – Bozak – Fabbri4:41
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Parayko13:40
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 16–6goals 1–2
- Bouwmeester – Faulk6:29
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Bortuzzo4:26
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).