Sat, Oct 19, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Boston Bruins 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 118 | 015 | 212 | 01 | 346 |
| TOR | 215 | 03 | 19 | 12 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Mitch Marner, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 15:44TORDmytro TimashovAssists: Frederik Gauthier · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 19:39BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Charlie Coyle, Chris Wagner · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 1:36BOSDanton HeinenPPAssists: Brett Ritchie, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 2:37TORAlexander KerfootAssists: Jake Muzzin, Ilya Mikheyev · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 15:34BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 3:54TORMorgan RiellyGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:56TORIlya Mikheyev: Holding2 min
- P2 7:52TORNicholas Shore: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:41TORMartin Marincin: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:41BOSDavid Backes: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:37TORMartin Marincin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:25
xG 0.69–0.36 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Backes – Wagner – Kuraly3:37
xG 0.35–0.13 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Coyle – Wagner – DeBrusk2:25
xG 0.15–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Heinen – Lindholm3:37
xG 0.21–0.13 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Clifton7:13
xG 0.37–0.08 (83%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Chara – Carlo3:13
xG 0.31–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo3:15
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Marner – Mikheyev2:11
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Kapanen – Timashov3:27
xG 0.35–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Marner – Matthews6:11
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Spezza – Kapanen – Moore4:19
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Rielly2:38
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Ceci2:09
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Marincin – Holl6:21
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).