Sat, Oct 19, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Dallas Stars 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 211 | 01 | 24 | 416 |
| PHI | 112 | 09 | 018 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:43PHISean CouturierAssists: Travis Konecny, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 7:00DALRoope HintzAssists: Jamie Benn, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–1
- P1 13:48DALEsa LindellPPGWGAssists: Denis Gurianov, Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 1:24DALCorey PerryUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 18:05DALMiro HeiskanenENAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.58 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:45DALAlexander Radulov: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:07DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:44PHITravis Sanheim: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:50DALJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:50PHIChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:23DALJustin Dowling: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:49PHIMatt Niskanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:38DALAlexander Radulov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Benn – Hintz7:37
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Dickinson8:48
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Dowling – Gurianov6:14
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Faksa – Janmark10:38
xG 0.03–0.31 (8%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Lindell7:07
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Fedun – Heiskanen2:48
xG 0.08–0.03 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fedun – Oleksiak4:47
xG 0.12–0.14 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Laughton – Raffl2:43
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny12:27
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Laughton7:36
xG 0.03–0.04 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Stewart – Raffl – Twarynski3:12
xG 0.04–0.11 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Hagg11:17
xG 0.49–0.04 (92%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- Braun – Sanheim11:03
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Sanheim2:21
xG 0.11–0.01 (95%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).