Sat, Oct 19, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 06 | 110 | 28 | 324 |
| PIT | 011 | 09 | 09 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:48VGKPaul StastnyPPGWGAssists: Cody Glass, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 18:45VGKWilliam KarlssonENAssists: Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–0
- P3 19:08VGKMark StoneENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:59VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
- P2 2:22PITZachary Aston-Reese: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 9:57PITDominik Simon: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:21VGKReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:27VGKCody Eakin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:10VGKJon Merrill: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:56PITPatric Hornqvist: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Stone9:12
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Pirri – Eakin – Glass8:37
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault14:07
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek6:33
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Bischoff13:57
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Holden – Merrill14:07
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:18
xG 0.27–0.31 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel5:01
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese8:59
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Simon – Kahun2:24
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Simon10:30
xG 0.22–0.15 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Pettersson12:00
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Letang – Marino11:16
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Gudbranson9:18
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).