Sat, Oct 19, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 3, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 05 | 217 | 08 | 00 | 1 | 330 |
| NSH | 09 | 07 | 27 | 04 | 0 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:33FLADenis MalginPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 19:09FLABrett ConnollyAssists: Colton Sceviour, Dryden Hunt · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 9:07NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan Ellis, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 13:30NSHKyle TurrisPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Pekka Rinne · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Matt Duchene stopped
- 2. FLA Mike Hoffman stopped
- 3. NSH Ryan Johansen stopped
- 4. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
- 5. NSH Kyle Turris stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:04NSHYakov Trenin: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:31FLABrett Connolly: Interference2 min
- P1 9:46FLABrett Connolly: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:39NSHKyle Turris: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:09FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 4:25FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Hunt – Acciari5:53
xG 0.21–0.03 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Acciari6:38
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Connolly – Trocheck12:10
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Matheson13:34
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Weegar – Ekblad13:33
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Yandle – Brown6:47
xG 0.04–0.22 (17%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Arvidsson12:35
xG 0.22–0.17 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons8:41
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Turris – Duchene – Granlund12:53
xG 0.45–0.50 (48%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Bonino – Smith – Trenin10:34
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis16:38
xG 0.57–0.30 (65%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm2:11
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber11:01
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).