Sat, Oct 19, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Buffalo Sabres 4, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 111 | 214 | 435 |
| SJS | 18 | 011 | 213 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:10BUFMarcus JohanssonAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:00SJSTimo MeierPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 17:03BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Jimmy Vesey · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 0:44SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Logan Couture · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 2:28BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jake McCabe, Marcus Johansson · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 2:50SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 12:15BUFZemgus GirgensonsGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:50BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 19:20BUFJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:09SJSKevin Labanc: Holding2 min
- P2 9:18SJSMario Ferraro: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:14BUFKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
- P2 18:52BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:24SJSPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:41SJSBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Johansson – Skinner10:37
xG 0.94–0.62 (60%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons6:43
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel10:33
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Vesey – Sheary – Mittelstadt6:33
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen13:42
xG 1.14–0.38 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 2–1
- Scandella – Jokiharju11:56
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Miller – Dahlin12:12
xG 0.16–0.73 (18%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Hertl – Labanc7:21
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Gregor – Gambrell4:25
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Goodrow5:50
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Sorensen – Karlsson – Gambrell2:08
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 2–1goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon13:32
xG 1.33–0.95 (58%)attempts 18–13goals 0–2
- Burns – Karlsson2:25
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro2:19
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 3–1goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).