Mon, Oct 21, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 07 | 018 | 210 | 235 |
| PHI | 115 | 413 | 19 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 6:12PHIKevin HayesAssists: Scott Laughton, Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:56PHIIvan ProvorovGWGAssists: Mikhail Vorobyev, Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 14:24PHIMatt NiskanenPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 15:19PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Michael Raffl, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 3:15VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Mark Stone, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 13:30VGKReilly SmithAssists: Nick Holden, Jon Merrill · Snap, 0.22 xG2–5
- P3 15:38PHIMichael RafflAssists: Chris Stewart · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:46VGKJake Bischoff: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:00VGKRyan Reaves: Interference2 min
- P2 9:08PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:35VGKBrayden McNabb: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:15VGKJonathan Marchessault: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:37PHIKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:01PHIRobert Hagg: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:39VGKWilliam Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:58PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:08PHIChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Nosek7:22
xG 0.80–0.10 (89%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Smith – Karlsson8:26
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone2:49
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Marchessault – Glass7:15
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Bischoff13:08
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Holden – Merrill12:04
xG 0.24–0.24 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- McNabb – Theodore12:22
xG 0.92–0.96 (49%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Farabee9:17
xG 0.50–0.22 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Couturier – Lindblom – Konecny9:29
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Stewart – Raffl – Vorobyev5:49
xG 0.30–0.14 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Voracek9:58
xG 0.41–0.64 (39%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Sanheim2:34
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Provorov11:59
xG 0.45–0.33 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Braun – Sanheim11:59
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).