Mon, Oct 21, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 01 | 08 | 118 |
| STL | 19 | 211 | 05 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:07STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:38COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 5:07STLDavid PerronGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 15:06STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:18STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:35COLIan Cole: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:41STLAlexander Steen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:15STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:50COLAndre Burakovsky: Holding2 min
- P1 17:50COLNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:50STLMackenzie MacEachern: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:33STLJay Bouwmeester: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:42STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:21COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P3 13:14COLAndre Burakovsky: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:13COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Compher2:32
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Wilson – Compher – Jost4:13
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – MacKinnon2:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky2:58
xG 0.02–0.05 (24%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Graves8:05
xG 0.33–0.06 (84%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Makar10:11
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Girard – Makar2:20
xG 0.02–0.04 (39%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBozak – Blais – Thomas8:24
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:30
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Steen – Perron – O'Reilly9:26
xG 0.32–0.32 (51%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – MacEachern – Barbashev6:07
xG 0.01–0.16 (8%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Parayko11:45
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn5:47
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Faulk – Dunn2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).