Tue, Oct 22, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 16 | 111 | 225 |
| FLA | 05 | 210 | 27 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:54FLANoel AcciariAssists: Dryden Hunt, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 11:57PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Jake Guentzel, Dominik Simon · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 18:00FLADenis MalginAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 13:42FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Anton Stralman, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 14:25PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 18:57FLAFrank VatranoENAssists: Denis Malgin, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.57 xG2–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 19:28PITPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:49FLAAnton Stralman: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel4:23
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Kahun7:15
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese9:45
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
- McCann – Simon – Kahun2:50
xG 0.03–0.06 (34%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Pettersson15:59
xG 0.89–0.79 (53%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Johnson – Gudbranson11:37
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino2:14
xG 0.04–0.06 (42%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHawryluk – Vatrano – Malgin10:53
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:52
xG 0.59–0.40 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Hunt – Acciari13:32
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Boyle – Hoffman – Connolly11:27
xG 0.13–0.60 (18%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Matheson14:21
xG 0.75–0.52 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stralman2:53
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Weegar – Brown2:36
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).