Tue, Oct 22, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vancouver Canucks 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 014 | 011 | 516 | 541 |
| DET | 19 | 117 | 07 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:08DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Tyler Bertuzzi · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 9:19DETDennis CholowskiPPAssists: Taro Hirose, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 1:42VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 3:13VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 12:19VANJake VirtanenGWGAssists: Josh Leivo, Jordie Benn · Deflected, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 14:21VANTim SchallerAssists: Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 18:48VANBo HorvatENAssists: J.T. Miller, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.50 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:29DETMike Green: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:17VANBrock Boeser: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 15:48VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P1 18:12DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:04VANJake Virtanen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:04DETEvgeny Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:01VANJ.T. Miller: Interference2 min
- P2 14:03DETTaro Hirose: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:35VANChris Tanev: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:59DETTyler Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:49DETDennis Cholowski: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:09VANTim Schaller: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:29VANTim Schaller: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Leivo – Pearson2:54
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Beagle – Schaller – Motte6:16
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson5:39
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Sutter – Ferland – Leivo5:04
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tanev – Hughes8:45
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Stecher9:36
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Edler – Myers10:28
xG 0.44–0.86 (34%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin9:48
xG 1.19–0.52 (70%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Helm – Hirose5:09
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – de la Rose – Svechnikov3:51
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Glendening – Athanasiou3:53
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Cholowski8:33
xG 0.94–0.11 (89%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Hronek2:24
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser2:45
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).