Tue, Oct 22, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 1, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 014 | 010 | 13 | 127 |
| NSH | 210 | 29 | 211 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:23NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:19NSHColton SissonsGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 0:35NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Nick Bonino, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 10:08NSHMattias EkholmSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG0–4
- P3 3:59ANARyan GetzlafUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 4:30NSHViktor ArvidssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 8:19NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:39ANAHampus Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:32ANAJacob Larsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:51ANAJakob Silfverberg: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:13NSHColton Sissons: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:15NSHYannick Weber: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 9:18NSHDante Fabbro: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:05NSHMiikka Salomaki: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:42ANAKorbinian Holzer: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:25ANAJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P3 14:45ANANick Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:45ANANick Ritchie: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Grant
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Ritchie – Kase10:13
xG 0.73–0.20 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell9:10
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Shore – Terry – Steel5:37
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney6:48
xG 0.20–0.47 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Larsson12:57
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Fowler12:25
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm12:55
xG 0.46–0.60 (44%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Smith – Grimaldi9:16
xG 0.52–0.18 (75%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Arvidsson7:45
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons10:03
xG 0.06–0.23 (22%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Turris – Duchene – Granlund8:02
xG 0.22–0.42 (35%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro15:22
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Weber9:58
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Josi – Ellis13:17
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).