Tue, Oct 22, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Los Angeles Kings 3, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 121 | 111 | 19 | 341 |
| WPG | 15 | 112 | 011 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:32LAKAustin WagnerAssists: Kyle Clifford, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 17:07WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 4:16LAKKurtis MacDermidUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 12:28WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Neal Pionk, Ville Heinola · Deflected, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 5:52LAKAnze KopitarPPGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Jonathan Quick · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:21WPGVille Heinola: Holding2 min
- P1 5:07WPGKyle Connor: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:28LAKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:06LAKKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:03LAKTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:50LAKMichael Amadio: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:13WPGCarl Dahlstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:34WPGNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:02LAKJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Amadio – Wagner3:20
xG 0.42–0.07 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo8:30
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Lizotte5:44
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Kovalchuk – Lewis – Kempe6:19
xG 0.02–0.20 (8%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Walker14:03
xG 0.88–0.49 (64%)attempts 13–21goals 2–0
- Doughty – Hutton13:52
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Connor5:20
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Perreault – Bourque – Gustafsson5:40
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Roslovic6:45
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Laine5:39
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bitetto – Dahlstrom10:07
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Pionk – Heinola12:07
xG 0.23–0.64 (27%)attempts 12–16goals 2–0
- Kulikov – Morrissey16:04
xG 0.35–0.87 (28%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).