Thu, Oct 24, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 39 | 03 | 012 | 00 | 324 |
| CBJ | 18 | 215 | 04 | 14 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Emil Bemstrom, Riley Nash · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 4:32CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Warren Foegele, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 11:43CARRyan DzingelAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P1 12:32CARSebastian AhoAssists: Brett Pesce, Lucas Wallmark · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 12:57CBJRyan MurrayAssists: Boone Jenner, David Savard · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 17:23CBJSonny MilanoAssists: David Savard, Ryan Murray · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 3:28CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.25 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:55CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:35CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P2 17:30CBJSeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:08CBJSonny Milano: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:47CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:06CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:06CARJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Dzingel – Necas7:22
xG 0.37–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Teravainen3:48
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McGinn – Wallmark – Aho4:23
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Svechnikov8:12
xG 0.06–0.15 (26%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce3:09
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Pesce12:12
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Hamilton – Slavin16:35
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Texier – Bemstrom5:34
xG 0.12–0.05 (68%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Dubois10:46
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Jenner – Anderson – Milano5:58
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 2–2
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Dubois2:25
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski15:40
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Savard – Murray15:17
xG 0.53–0.48 (53%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Harrington – Gavrikov11:57
xG 0.23–0.70 (25%)attempts 7–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).