Thu, Oct 24, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 15 | 113 | 25 | 423 |
| CHI | 07 | 01 | 116 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:05PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 0:59PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Travis Sanheim, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 1:00CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Andrew Shaw, Kirby Dach · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 5:03PHIKevin HayesAssists: Scott Laughton, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 16:44PHIJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:49PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:29CHIDominik Kubalik: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:15PHIJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:33PHIIvan Provorov: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:27PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:55CHIPatrick Kane: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Farabee9:56
xG 1.00–0.81 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Voracek11:38
xG 0.86–0.70 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- Couturier – Lindblom – Konecny9:30
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Stewart – Raffl – Vorobyev4:40
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov15:20
xG 1.36–1.00 (58%)attempts 12–16goals 3–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg13:14
xG 0.98–0.78 (56%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Braun – Sanheim11:50
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Saad – Dach4:28
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Carpenter – Nylander – Caggiula6:22
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Shaw – DeBrincat6:05
xG 0.53–0.48 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Toews – Strome – DeBrincat2:50
xG 0.04–0.00 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKoekkoek – Gustafsson11:41
xG 0.94–0.82 (53%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Keith – Gustafsson2:54
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Maatta – Koekkoek3:07
xG 0.04–0.13 (25%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).