Thu, Oct 24, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Washington Capitals 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 311 | 09 | 00 | 328 |
| EDM | 111 | 014 | 214 | 11 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:20EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 5:40WSHJakub VranaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 6:27WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 13:40WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Tom Wilson, Jakub Vrana · Snap, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 4:25EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Zack Kassian · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 18:22EDMConnor McDavidAssists: James Neal, Alex Chiasson · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 1:18EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:08WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:55EDMMarkus Granlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:26WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:59EDMMatt Benning: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 17:58WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:58EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Hathaway – Vrana6:20
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
- Dowd – Leipsic – Stephenson8:45
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Kuznetsov – Wilson7:08
xG 0.14–0.40 (26%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:18
xG 0.62–1.04 (37%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Siegenthaler2:06
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Siegenthaler7:05
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Gudas – Siegenthaler6:02
xG 0.58–0.62 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Draisaitl – McDavid20:10
xG 1.72–0.81 (68%)attempts 29–18goals 2–0
- Gagner – Granlund – Russell4:52
xG 0.47–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Neal – Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins10:52
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 18–12goals 0–2
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira5:37
xG 0.05–0.18 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear20:01
xG 1.36–0.62 (69%)attempts 23–21goals 1–2
- Manning – Benning6:33
xG 0.62–0.03 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Russell – Manning2:28
xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).