Fri, Oct 25, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Colorado Avalanche 6, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 215 | 319 | 16 | 640 |
| VGK | 16 | 09 | 011 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28COLPierre-Edouard BellemareUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 18:30VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 19:13COLNazem KadriGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 7:55COLCale MakarAssists: J.T. Compher, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 10:11COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P2 15:50COLMatt CalvertAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 17:58COLMatt CalvertSHAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:07COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:07VGKMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:04COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P1 16:06VGKCody Glass: Interference2 min
- P2 5:35COLNazem Kadri: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:44VGKPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:36VGKCody Eakin: Holding2 min
- P3 8:20COLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:36COLIan Cole: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Nieto – Bellemare6:03
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–2goals 2–0
- Landeskog – Compher – MacKinnon7:37
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Wilson – Nichushkin – Jost7:52
xG 0.03–0.12 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky6:31
xG 0.08–0.25 (24%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Makar11:00
xG 0.42–0.08 (84%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard10:38
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Zadorov3:41
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Nosek5:40
xG 0.34–0.20 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Stone – Marchessault – Glass4:03
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Stastny – Eakin – Nosek2:59
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Smith – Karlsson3:14
xG 0.07–0.06 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Merrill12:50
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore11:57
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Engelland – Bischoff11:30
xG 0.33–0.55 (38%)attempts 9–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).