Fri, Oct 25, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 213 | 27 | 04 | 424 |
| OTT | 18 | 014 | 110 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59OTTTyler EnnisAssists: Thomas Chabot, Connor Brown · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 13:00NYINick LeddyAssists: Matt Martin, Johnny Boychuk · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 17:19NYINick LeddyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
- P2 4:58NYIMatt MartinGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Cal Clutterbuck · Slap, 0.26 xG3–1
- P2 6:08NYIDerick BrassardAssists: Mathew Barzal, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 7:08OTTTyler EnnisPPAssists: Logan Brown, Anthony Duclair · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
Penalties (18)
- P1 5:58NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:16NYIDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:53OTTNick Paul: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:19OTTNikita Zaitsev: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P1 19:41NYICole Bardreau: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:53OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:53NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:53OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:53NYICal Clutterbuck: Misconduct10 min
- P2 8:53OTTMark Borowiecki: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:10NYINick Leddy: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:28NYIAnders Lee: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:20OTTVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:10OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:10NYICasey Cizikas: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 6:37NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:00NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:00OTTTyler Ennis: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas2:53
xG 0.47–0.04 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
- Brassard – Lee – Barzal2:41
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal10:57
xG 0.47–0.28 (62%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Bardreau2:26
xG 0.01–0.25 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Dobson7:35
xG 0.78–0.25 (76%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Pelech – Pulock12:02
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy6:22
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Paul10:44
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Duclair – Brown – Tkachuk7:51
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Ennis – Namestnikov – Tierney4:29
xG 0.09–0.08 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Namestnikov – Tierney2:52
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot2:13
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – DeMelo10:25
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Chabot – Zaitsev16:24
xG 0.54–0.81 (40%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).