Sat, Oct 26, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
St. Louis Blues 0, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 07 | 010 | 026 |
| BOS | 110 | 19 | 15 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:59BOSDavid PastrnakPPGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 9:31BOSAnders BjorkAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Danton Heinen · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 19:11BOSBrandon CarloENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG0–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:38STLBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:38BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:13BOSTorey Krug: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 6:13STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:08STLDavid Perron: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:49BOSSean Kuraly: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:12STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:42BOSTorey Krug: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:06STLOskar Sundqvist: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:17BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Interference2 min
- P3 4:02STLColton Parayko: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:22BOSTorey Krug: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Perron – O'Reilly6:14
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Sundqvist5:49
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Bozak – Sanford – Thomas8:26
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- MacEachern – Barbashev – Blais5:05
xG 0.03–0.29 (8%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Faulk8:18
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko2:48
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Parayko – Dunn2:02
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Bjork – Lindholm7:28
xG 0.35–0.07 (82%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak6:58
xG 0.32–0.09 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Coyle – Ritchie – DeBrusk6:46
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly6:35
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Clifton9:54
xG 0.49–0.11 (81%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Chara – McAvoy10:37
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo9:01
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).