Sat, Oct 26, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Philadelphia Flyers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 212 | 15 | 426 |
| PHI | 111 | 118 | 517 | 746 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:51PHIJakub VoracekAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:26CBJBoone JennerAssists: Sonny Milano, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:28CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Seth Jones, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 17:39PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 18:04CBJBoone JennerAssists: Josh Anderson, Sonny Milano · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 2:15CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Dean Kukan, Vladislav Gavrikov · Snap, 0.37 xG4–2
- P3 10:52PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Claude Giroux, Kevin Hayes · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 12:37PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Ivan Provorov, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 14:24PHIKevin HayesSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–5
- P3 18:21PHIMichael RafflENAssists: Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.64 xG4–6
- P3 19:46PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:25PHITravis Konecny: Holding2 min
- P1 4:20CBJGustav Nyquist: Holding2 min
- P1 4:42PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:17CBJDean Kukan: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:23PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:19PHIMatt Niskanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:45CBJNick Foligno: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:57CBJAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:57PHIChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:03PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:39CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Anderson – Milano7:40
xG 1.12–0.60 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 3–1
- Nash – Texier – Bemstrom2:44
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Dubois3:59
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Dubois5:16
xG 0.00–0.19 (2%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKukan – Gavrikov12:11
xG 1.56–0.30 (84%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Savard – Murray13:04
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
- Jones – Werenski14:31
xG 0.54–0.95 (36%)attempts 10–22goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – van Riemsdyk – Voracek10:00
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Hayes – Raffl – Farabee6:53
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Farabee2:26
xG 0.02–0.00 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Couturier – Lindblom – Konecny10:02
xG 0.58–0.91 (39%)attempts 19–6goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov13:26
xG 0.99–0.25 (80%)attempts 21–8goals 2–1
- Braun – Sanheim12:50
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Sanheim2:42
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).