Sat, Oct 26, 2019·Mosaic Stadium, ReginaOutdoor game
Calgary Flames 1, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 115 | 04 | 00 | 130 |
| WPG | 014 | 012 | 115 | 14 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:47CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P3 15:49WPGJosh MorrisseyPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 3:04WPGBryan LittleGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:48CGYSean Monahan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:52CGYTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:10CGYSam Bennett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:09WPGAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:47WPGMathieu Perreault: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 0:00WPGAdam Lowry: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:50CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 0:39CGYSean Monahan: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk12:16
xG 0.82–0.38 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Lucic – Frolik – Backlund8:30
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Monahan – Bennett – Mangiapane8:50
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Rieder – Quine – Ryan7:23
xG 0.16–0.38 (29%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin16:17
xG 0.80–0.46 (64%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Andersson – Kylington12:16
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie12:58
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Roslovic8:32
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor2:34
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine4:49
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Perreault – Bourque – Gustafsson3:08
xG 0.09–0.14 (38%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Pionk14:22
xG 0.56–0.54 (51%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Bitetto – Dahlstrom8:38
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Poolman – Morrissey17:05
xG 0.49–0.75 (39%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).