Sat, Oct 26, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 29 | 19 | 29 | 527 |
| COL | 012 | 113 | 112 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Rickard Rakell, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:51ANACarter RowneyAssists: Derek Grant, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 5:22COLJoonas DonskoiPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 8:28ANARyan GetzlafPPGWGAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Ryan Miller · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 1:38COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: J.T. Compher, Cale Makar · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 6:42ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Nick Ritchie, Brendan Guhle · Backhand, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 17:47ANAJakob SilfverbergENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:44ANASam Steel: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:29COLNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:47COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min
- P2 1:16ANANick Ritchie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:06ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:51COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:58ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P3 0:28ANAErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:38ANAMaxime Comtois: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Grant
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Ritchie – Comtois4:09
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Grant – Shore – Rowney2:50
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell3:31
xG 0.13–0.05 (74%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Terry – Steel – Jones3:56
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Lindholm5:18
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Fowler – Guhle5:05
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Holzer – Larsson5:06
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky4:05
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Wilson – Nichushkin – Jost2:36
xG 0.08–0.03 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Calvert – Nieto – Bellemare3:00
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Compher – MacKinnon4:12
xG 0.10–0.22 (30%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Makar3:34
xG 0.27–0.04 (86%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Graves – Zadorov4:22
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard5:37
xG 0.14–0.28 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).