Sun, Oct 27, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Florida Panthers 6, Edmonton Oilers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 311 | 38 | 629 |
| EDM | 07 | 09 | 210 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:31FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Aleksander Barkov, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 1:58FLABrian BoylePPAssists: Brett Connolly, Jayce Hawryluk · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–0
- P2 2:36FLANoel AcciariGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 0:49FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG4–0
- P3 3:37EDMJames NealPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 13:18EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Ethan Bear, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 18:36FLAFrank VatranoENAssists: Denis Malgin, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–2
- P3 19:40FLAJayce HawrylukAssists: Brett Connolly, Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.04 xG6–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:05FLAJayce Hawryluk: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:37EDMSam Gagner: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:49FLADryden Hunt: Interference2 min
- P3 2:16FLAMark Pysyk: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Huberdeau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Vatrano – Malgin7:54
xG 0.48–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Connolly – Hawryluk6:41
xG 0.37–0.15 (72%)attempts 3–7goals 2–0
- Hawryluk – Vatrano – Malgin2:32
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Hoffman – Connolly2:52
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Pysyk15:54
xG 0.83–0.79 (51%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Yandle – Brown14:29
xG 0.43–0.74 (37%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Weegar – Ekblad17:04
xG 0.35–0.92 (27%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Draisaitl – McDavid11:21
xG 1.16–0.64 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Gagner – Sheahan – Jurco2:48
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Neal – Kassian – Draisaitl2:23
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid3:35
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear17:49
xG 1.11–0.54 (67%)attempts 17–11goals 1–3
- Russell – Klefbom18:35
xG 0.92–0.46 (66%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Benning2:19
xG 0.01–0.04 (18%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).